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Sydney to Newcastle fast rail makes sense. Making trains locally does not

<p>Federal Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/our-policies/sydney-to-hunter-fast-rail">this week announced</a> a commitment to funding high-speed rail between Sydney and Newcastle.</p> <p>At speeds of more than 250km/h, this would cut the 150-minute journey from Sydney to Newcastle to just 45 minutes. Commuting between the two cities would be a lot more feasible.</p> <p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439624/original/file-20220106-21-19utua0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt="" /></a> <span class="caption">Proposed route for high-speed Melbourne to Brisbane rail.</span> <span class="attribution"><a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/map/corridor-preservation-east-coast-high-speed-rail" class="source">Infrastructure Australia</a></span></p> <p>The Sydney-Newcastle link would be a first step in a grand plan to link the Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane corridor by high-speed rail.</p> <p>Albanese also wants the trains to be built at home, <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/our-policies/sydney-to-hunter-fast-rail">saying</a> “we will look build as much of our fast and high-speed rail future in Australia as is possible”.</p> <p>Of course, this idea has been around for a long time. Nobody has ever got the numbers to stack up before.</p> <p>Federal infrastructure minister Paul Fletcher made the obvious but reasonable point that such a rail link would be very expensive.</p> <p>“It is $200 to $300 billion on any credible estimate,” he <a href="https://newcastleweekly.com.au/coalition-pulls-brakes-on-labors-fast-rail-plans/">said in response</a> to Labor’s announcement. “It has to be paid for, and that means higher taxes”.</p> <p>Or does it?</p> <h2>Social cost-benefit analysis</h2> <p>Traditional cost-benefit analysis is how governments tend to make decisions about big infrastructure projects like this. Figure out the costs (such as $300 billion) and then figure out the benefits. Adjust for timing differences and when money is spent and received, and then compare.</p> <p>This generates an “internal rate of return” (IRR) on the money invested. It’s what private companies do all the time. One then compares that IRR to some reference or “hurdle” rate. For a private company that might be 12% or so. For governments it is typically lower.</p> <p>An obvious question this raises is: what are the benefits?</p> <p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/439623/original/file-20220106-27-vyofyv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="" /></a> <span class="caption">An artist’s impression by Phil Belbin of the proposed VFT (Very Fast Train) in the 1980s.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Comeng</span></span></p> <p>If all one is willing to count are things such as ticket fares, the numbers will almost never stack up. But that’s far too narrow a way to think about the financial benefits.</p> <p>A Sydney-Newcastle high-speed rail link would cut down on travel times, help ease congestion in Sydney, ease housing affordability pressures in Sydney, improve property values along the corridor and in Newcastle, provide better access to education and jobs, and more.</p> <p>The point is one has to think about the social value from government investments, not just the narrow commercial value. Alex Rosenberg, Rosalind Dixon and I provided a framework for this kind of “social return accounting” in a <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/social-return-accounting.pdf">report</a> published in 2018.</p> <h2>Newcastle might make sense, Brisbane might not</h2> <p>I haven’t done the social cost-benefit analysis for this rail link, but the social return being greater than the cost is quite plausible.</p> <p>The other thing to remember is that the return a government should require has fallen materially in recent years. The Australian government can borrow for 10 years at just 1.78%, as opposed to <a href="http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/bond-historical-data/australia/10-years/">well over 5%</a> before the financial crisis of 2008.</p> <p>I’m less sure about the Brisbane to Melbourne idea. The cost would be dramatically higher for obvious reasons, as well as the fact that the topography en route to Brisbane is especially challenging.</p> <p>Nobody is going to commute from Sydney to Brisbane by rail, and the air routes between the three capitals are well serviced.</p> <h2>Transport policy is not industry policy</h2> <p>The decision about building a Sydney-Newcastle rail link is, and should be kept, completely separate from where the trains are made. Transport policy shouldn’t be hijacked for industry policy.</p> <p>To be fair, Newcastle has a long and proud history of <a href="https://www.ugllimited.com/en/our-sectors/transport">manufacturing rolling stock</a>, at what was the Goninan factory at Broadmeadow – much of it for export.</p> <p>But ask yourself how sustainable that industry looks in Australia, absent massive government support. Can it stand on its own?</p> <p>It’s also true there have been some recent high-profile procurement disasters buying overseas trains.</p> <p>Sydney’s light-rail project has run massively late and over budget, with Spanish company Acciona getting an extra A$600 million due to the project being more difficult than expected.</p> <p>Then <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/transport-minister-expects-spanish-manufacturer-to-pay-for-cracked-trams-20211110-p597tq.html">cracks were found</a> in all 12 trams for the city’s inner-west line, putting them out of service for 18 months.</p> <p>These are terrible bungles due to the government agreeing to poorly written contracts with sophisticated counterparties. When contracts don’t specify contingencies there is the possibility of what economists call the “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1530-9134.2009.00236.x">hold-up problem</a>”.</p> <p>But these problems could have occurred with a local maker too.</p> <h2>The Tinbergen Rule</h2> <p>An enduring lesson from economics is the Tinbergen Rule – named after <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1969/tinbergen/facts/">Jan Tinbergen</a>, winner of the first Nobel prize for economics.</p> <p>This rule says for each policy challenge one requires an independent policy instrument. This can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-evergrande-may-survive-but-for-its-executives-expect-a-fate-worse-than-debt-168930">widely applied</a>. But here the lesson is particularly clear.</p> <p>Addressing housing affordability is a good idea, and a Sydney-Newcastle link could help with that. But if Labor want a jobs policy it should develop one.</p> <p>The more TAFE places Labor has already announced is a reasonable start.</p> <p>Reviving 1970s-style industry policy – something that has almost never worked – is not a good move. Governments are lousy at picking winners. The public invariably ends up paying more for less, and the jobs are typically transient.</p> <p>But aside from this conflation of policy goals, Albanese deserves credit for being bold about the future of high-speed rail in Australia.</p> <p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a></em></span></p> <p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-sydney-to-newcastle-fast-rail-makes-sense-making-trains-locally-does-not-174341">original article</a>.</p> <p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>

Domestic Travel

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Things to see and do in Newcastle

<p>Newcastle is a city on the up-and-up, with culinary, cultural and social evolution at the heart of change. In spite of the gentrification of inner city areas such as Wickham, it hasn't lost sight of its origins as a coal and steel port.</p> <p><strong>1. Visit: Newcastle museum</strong></p> <p> The excellent Newcastle museum, behind the harbour, brings its industrial past to life, with an atmospheric audio-visual re-creation of life at Big Harry's Place (BHP steelworks). It also features footage from the 1989 earthquake, 5.6 on the Richter scale, that destroyed much of the centre and killed 13. Another section brings science alive with interactive exhibits allowing visitors to lift a car on pulleys, create a whirlpool and make iron filings dance.</p> <p><strong>2. Dine: Surf House Grill Merewether</strong></p> <p>Merewether Beach is to Newcastle as Bondi is to Sydney, as much a social focal point as a strip of fine city sand and with its ocean baths another draw. While Bondi has the Icebergs complex at its southern end, Merewether has the Surfhouse, with its restaurant, cocktail bar, cafe and pizza shop, right on the beach. It's a striking glass-encased modern building full of intriguing design details like the swirling lightshades above the restaurant and all facilities full on weekends. Reserve a table at Surfhouse Grill for dishes like spanner crab spaghetti entree, with cold pressed lemon, chilli and garlic breadcrumbs and the pan-fried duck breast, from the Upper Hunter Valley, brussels sprout leaves and warm marmalade.</p> <p><strong>3. Stay: Crowne Plaza</strong></p> <p>Situated on the Honeysuckle harbourfront, amid promenade bars and restaurants, this all-suite property feels more like a boutique than chain hotel. It's walking distance to the centre, Newcastle Museum is two minutes away and it has an inviting outdoor pool running parallel with the foreshore. </p> <p><strong>4. Vycle: The Harbourfront</strong></p> <p>Swipe your credit card and take a bike, from outside the Crowne Plaza, for a spin along the waterfront. Ride as far as Fort Scratchley and then follow the breakwall, at the mouth of the Hunter River. If you're lucky you'll spot a resident female Australian sea lion, lazing on the rocks at the far end, testimony that Newcastle is cleaning up its waterways. </p> <p><strong>5. Tour: Newcastle's famous tram</strong></p> <p>Hop aboard this replica of the city's original 1923 tram for a city tour, including the beaches and historical sights. Built in 1994, the bus is the creation of local Chris Kepreotes, who provides an insightful commentary on Newcastle old and new. Departs from Wharf Road, on the harbourfront, 10.30am and midday weekdays and, on demand at weekends.</p> <p><strong>6. Taste: Table 1 Espresso</strong></p> <p>Occupying the site of a former car wash at a road junction in Merewether, a special mix of social media marketing, darn good service and scrumptious food have made Table 1 Espresso one of Newcastle's top cafes. A breakfast favourite is Persian poached eggs rolled in dukkah with hummus, goats cheese and chorizo while at lunch, tasty paninis and burgers jostle for attention with inventive salads featuring Moroccan chicken, broccoli, snowpeas, olives and feta. But those with a sweet tooth (or children) will be unable to bypass the Tim Tam or Maltesers pancakes and waffles at any time.</p> <p><strong>7. Stroll: Newcastle Memorial Walk</strong></p> <p>There can be few more inspiring ways of remembering your war dead than in a cliff-top walkway. Completed in 2015, to mark the 100th anniversary of the Gallipoli landings, the walkway is made, appropriately, from 64 tonnes of steel. It spans 450 metres from Strzelecki Lookout to Bar Beach and has outstanding views of the coast and the city.</p> <p><strong>8. View: Street art in Wickham and Belmont</strong></p> <p>In laneways in inner city Wickham, once notorious for nefarious goings-on and at Belmont, beside Lake Macquarie, south of Newcastle, walls, fences and garage doors have been transformed by colourful graffiti. In Wickham, the art behind the old miner's cottages around Church Street has an edgy feel, with sea creatures depicted among industrial debris and one wall devoted to the Pasher Bulker container ship that ran aground on Nobby's Beach in 2007. In Belmont, the street art emanates from the "Block by Block Belmont" project, initiated by Cafe Macquarie owner Ana Benson and involving six local businesses. The project, behind Cafe Macquarie, sought to end vandalism and graffiti tagging by commissioning work from 10 artists, including two from New Zealand. </p> <p><strong>9. Dine: Subo</strong></p> <p>Fast garnering a reputation beyond Newcastle, Subo is an upmarket bistro presided over by former Australian Young Chef of the Year Beau Vincent, and his Polish/Malaysian Chinese wife Suzie. While the ex-Testsuya's and Bennelong chef creates masterpieces from seasonal ingredients in the kitchen, Suzie administers the wine and welcome out front. Dishes like Singaporean style spanner crab and Mandagery Creek venison in konbu and juniper are full of invention and Asian flavour while desserts like spiced fig ripple ice-cream are simply irresistible. </p> <p><strong>10. Tour: Lunchtime Harbour Cruise</strong></p> <p>For all the talk of change in Newcastle, it is still a working port, as this tour with Nova Cruises confirms. You pass the city's huge grain export terminal, a swathe of waterside industrial infrastructure for loading and unloading ships and an array of vast container vessels like the 298m-long Kawasaki. With the slight hills of Port Stephens in the background, harbourside suburbs like Stockton, a five-minute ferry ride from central Newcastle, and the modern foreshore, also part of view, the cruise captures the essence of this evolving city. </p> <p><img width="498" height="245" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/36785/newcastle-2_498x245.jpg" alt="Newcastle -2"/></p> <p><strong>11. Stay: Caves Beach Resort</strong></p> <p>A half-hour drive south of the centre, staying at Caves Beach Resort allows easy access to Newcastle, nearby Lake Macquarie and the hollowed-out sea caves at the southern end of the beach it is named after. Built into the dunes, the resort's villas and townhouses have a relaxed, sea-side feel that belies the proximity of NSW's second largest city.</p> <p><strong>12. Kayak: Lake Macquarie</strong></p> <p>Newcastle is one of Australia's only major cities that is by the sea, on a river, the Hunter, and lies on the fringes of a large coastal lagoon, in Lake Macquarie. Exploring the lake by kayak and stand-up paddleboard is a delight. Nick Coyte, from Lake Macquarie Kayaks, makes it easy for you by delivering what you need to the waterside, enabling you, for instance, to put in behind Swansea on the eastern shore and paddle across to sand dunes on nearby islands. The clarity of the brackish lake water is remarkable given the proximity of a big industrial city. </p> <p><strong>13. Quaff: Inner City Winemaker</strong></p> <p>While the Hunter wine region is close, you need not travel that far for a tasting, as Newcastle has its own inner city winemakers, the first of their kind in Australia. Opened in 2011, and part of the changing scene in previously downbeat Wickham, it is the project of vigneron Rob Wice and his artist partner Janine. Wice makes the wines on site, including a rich Spanish-style tempranillo, while his partner oversees regular art exhibitions at the former car workshop.</p> <p><strong>14. Visit: Fort Scratchley</strong></p> <p>Fort Scratchley has been a prominent part of the Newcastle skyline since 1882, overlooking Nobby's Beach and standing guard over the Hunter River mouth. Originally the site of Australia's first colonial coal mine, using convict labour, the strategic importance of its location, high above the harbour, made it perfect for a defensive fort, at a time of fears of attack by Russia. Scratchley was constructed around a battery of three guns, facing the sea. During World War II, it became Australia's only coastal fortification to fire on an enemy vessel, when a Japanese submarine attacked Newcastle, in June 1942. Open daily except Tuesday (10am to 4pm), tours of the fort, depart regularly, and the firing of the gun takes place at 1pm. </p> <p><strong>15. Dine: Rustica Newcastle Beach</strong></p> <p>Next to the Novotel, in a prime position overlooking Newcastle Beach, Rustica restaurant is an enjoyable slice of Mediterranean style and flavour in the city centre. Rustica's decor is so classically Hispanic, with wine barrels and lanterns hanging from the ceiling, that you'll be tempted to call for castanets rather than cutlery, and a guitarist adds a flamenco soundtrack in the evening. The food is trans-Mediterranean with a hint of Morrocan spice and includes tapas, mains like Fennel roasted pork belly with Italian sausage and irresistible shared plates like Braised "kleftico" lamb shoulder with oregano potatoes. </p> <p><strong>16. Quaff: Craft Beer</strong></p> <p>Begin, prolong or end a chilled night out in Newcastle by visiting a craft beer bar. The longest established is The Grain Store – see grainstorenewcastle.com.au – with 21 independently brewed and exclusively Australian beers on tap and an atmospheric venue, including art deco tiling and flooring, in an old warehouse on central Scott Street. Also hot are The Blind Monk, on Beaumont Street in Hamilton – see theblindmonk.com.au – with local and international beers and ciders, and FogHorn Brewhouse – see foghornbrewhouse.com.au – on King Street, which produces several beers on site, has live music and serves New York diner-style food and pizza.</p> <p><strong>17. Shop: Emporium</strong></p> <p>Located on the ground floor of the former David Jones department store, the Emporium is an arcade of boutique shops featuring the work of local artisans. Developed as part of the Renew Newcastle project, which aims to make use of empty buildings in the CBD, it sells everything from bespoke millinery, ceramic jewellery and bohemian fashions to resin homewares. </p> <p><strong>18. Eat: Three Bears Kitchen</strong></p> <p>If you like industrial chic design and clever coffee art – the bear face is brilliant – with your breakfast then head to Three Bears Kitchen. With frescoed walls that make it look like a 19th century station waiting room, exposed copper pipes and brickwork and even a steam boiler beside the bar, it's an anachronistic yet welcoming contemporary space, on Scott Street. A great place for the morning after, with a breakfast pizza laden with bacon, sausage and fried egg or The Green Machine, featuring roast mushrooms, poached egg, quinoa, kale, avocado, nuts and seeds on hand to aid your revival. </p> <p><strong>19. Event: Newcastle Writers Festival</strong></p> <p>This annual festival features at least 85 free and ticketed sessions with both local and international authors and is another cultural happening that's reviving the city centre, with many talks taking place at the elegant City Hall and Civic Theatre. Always an eclectic mix of writers, including Stan Grant, NSW Australian of the Year, and former child soldier Deng Adut and Michael Leunig in recent years, it also has a strong representation of female authors, including Clementine Ford, Tara Moss and Nikki Gemmell, in 2017. April 6-8 2018. </p> <p><strong>20. Visit: Hunter Wetlands Centre</strong></p> <p>About 15 minutes drive out of Newcastle, this thriving wetland is another indication of the city's post-industrial health, with 217 species of bird, including magpie geese, and several types of mammal, reptile, frog and fish recorded at this bio-diversity hot spot. It's a lovely place for a stroll along boardwalks and beside waterways teeming with life and an invaluable educational resource for adults and children alike.</p> <p>Have you ever been to Newcastle? What’s your favourite thing to do in the Hunter Region? Let us know in the comments section below, we’d love to hear from you. </p> <p><em>Written by Daniel Scott. First appeared on <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><a href="http://www.Stuff.co.nz" target="_blank">Stuff.co.nz</a></strong></span>. </em></p>

International Travel