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6 reasons why global temperatures are spiking right now

<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a></em></p> <p>The world is very warm right now. We’re not only seeing record temperatures, but the records are being broken by record-wide margins.</p> <p>Take the preliminary September global-average temperature anomaly of 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, for example. It’s an incredible 0.5°C above the previous record.</p> <p>So why is the world so incredibly hot right now? And what does it mean for keeping our Paris Agreement targets?</p> <p>Here are six contributing factors – with climate change the main reason temperatures are so high.</p> <h2>1. El Niño</h2> <p>One reason for the exceptional heat is we are in a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean">significant El Niño</a> that is still strengthening. During El Niño we see warming of the surface ocean over much of the tropical Pacific. This warming, and the effects of El Niño in other parts of the world, raises global average temperatures by <a href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/01/2022-updates-to-the-temperature-records/">about 0.1 to 0.2°C</a>.</p> <p>Taking into account the fact we’ve just come out of a triple La Niña, which cools global average temperatures slightly, and the fact this is the first major El Niño in eight years, it’s not too surprising we’re seeing unusually high temperatures at the moment.</p> <p>Still, El Niño alone isn’t enough to explain the crazily high temperatures the world is experiencing.</p> <h2>2. Falling pollution</h2> <p>Air pollution from human activities cools the planet and has offset some of the warming caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. There have been efforts to reduce this pollution – since 2020 there has been an <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/imo-advances-measures-to-reduce-emissions-from-international-shipping/">international agreement</a> to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions from the global shipping industry.</p> <p>It has been speculated this cleaner air has contributed to the recent heat, particularly over the record-warm <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-breaking-north-atlantic-ocean-temperatures-contribute-extreme-marine-heatwaves">north Atlantic</a> and Pacific regions with high shipping traffic.</p> <p>It’s likely this is contributing to the extreme high global temperatures – but only on the order of hundredths of a degree. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/">Recent analysis</a> suggests the effect of the 2020 shipping agreement is about an extra 0.05°C warming by 2050.</p> <h2>3. Increasing solar activity</h2> <p>While falling pollution levels mean more of the Sun’s energy reaches Earth’s surface, the amount of the energy the Sun emits is itself variable. There are different solar cycles, but an 11-year cycle is the most relevant one to today’s climate.</p> <p>The Sun is becoming <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/14/world/solar-maximum-activity-2024-scn/index.html">more active</a> from a minimum in late 2019. This is also contributing a small amount to the spike in global temperatures. Overall, increasing solar activity is contributing only hundredths of a degree at most to the recent global heat.</p> <h2>4. Water vapour from Hunga Tonga eruption</h2> <p>On January 15 2022 the underwater <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26006-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-eruption">Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano erupted</a> in the South Pacific Ocean, sending large amounts of water vapour high up into the upper atmosphere. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so increasing its concentration in the atmosphere in this way does intensify the greenhouse effect.</p> <p>Even though the eruption happened almost two years ago, it’s still having a small warming effect on the planet. However, as with the reduced pollution and increasing solar activity, we’re talking about hundredths of a degree.</p> <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6oANPi-SWN0?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>5. Bad luck</h2> <p>We see variability in global temperatures from one year to the next even without factors like El Niño or major changes in pollution. Part of the reason this September was so extreme was likely due to weather systems being in the right place to heat the land surface.</p> <p>When we have persistent high-pressure systems over land regions, as seen recently over places like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/01/autumn-heat-continues-in-europe-after-record-breaking-september">western Europe</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-19/australia-weather-september-heat-records-tumble/102870294">Australia</a>, we see local temperatures rise and the conditions for unseasonable heat.</p> <p>As water requires more energy to warm and the ocean moves around, we don’t see the same quick response in temperatures over the seas when we have high-pressure systems.</p> <p>The positioning of weather systems warming up many land areas coupled with persistent ocean heat is likely a contributor to the global-average heat too.</p> <h2>6. Climate change</h2> <p>By far the biggest contributor to the overall +1.7°C global temperature anomaly is human-caused climate change. Overall, humanity’s effect on the climate has been a global warming of <a href="https://www.globalwarmingindex.org/">about 1.2°C</a>.</p> <p>The record-high rate of greenhouse gas emissions means we should expect global warming to accelerate too.</p> <p>While humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions explain the trend seen in September temperatures over many decades, they don’t really explain the big difference from last September (when the greenhouse effect was almost as strong as it is today) and September 2023.</p> <p>Much of the difference between this year and last comes back to the switch from La Niña to El Niño, and the right weather systems in the right place at the right time.</p> <h2>The upshot: we need to accelerate climate action</h2> <p>September 2023 shows that with a combination of climate change and other factors aligning we can see alarmingly high temperatures.</p> <p>These anomalies may appear to be above the 1.5°C global warming level referred to in the Paris Agreement, but that’s about keeping <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/understanding-the-paris-agreements-long-term-temperature-goal/">long-term global warming</a> to low levels and not individual months of heat.</p> <p>But we are seeing the effects of climate change unfolding more and more clearly.</p> <p>The most vulnerable are suffering the biggest impacts as wealthier nations continue to emit the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Humanity must accelerate the path to net zero to prevent more record-shattering global temperatures and damaging extreme events.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215140/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-reasons-why-global-temperatures-are-spiking-right-now-215140">original article</a>.</em></p>

Travel Trouble

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Energy bills are spiking after the Russian invasion. We should have doubled-down on renewables years ago

<p>Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is happening half a planet away from Australia. </p> <p>But the ripple effects are plain to see at every petrol station and, potentially soon, your electricity bill. </p> <p>As a result of the invasion and Western sanctions on Russian exports, energy prices have skyrocketed. </p> <p>If that makes you think nations should have taken steps to secure alternatives to fossil fuels years ago, you’re not alone. As it is, the much higher energy prices are likely to accelerate the exit of coal – and gas – from our energy grids. </p> <p>This should be a wake-up call. It doesn’t matter that Australia is far from the battlefield. Everyone in the world will be affected in some way.</p> <h2>What’s the link between the invasion and Australian energy prices?</h2> <p>You might think Australia’s domestic supply of coal and gas means we’d be immune to price rises. Not so. </p> <p>Due to formal sanctions and informal shunning of Russian exports, oil, coal and gas are now extremely expensive on a global scale. Thermal coal prices have increased five-fold to an unprecedented ~$A500 per tonne. Oil is ~$140 a barrel and up 60% year on year. Natural gas in Europe is around 50% higher than last October, but since the invasion, prices have spiked as high as ~200% higher than 2021 levels. </p> <p>Coal buyers are locking in supply, concerned that Russian sanctions will continue. Russia is the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/030722-factbox-russian-metals-industrys-reliance-on-china-set-to-rise-as-sanctions-disrupt-supplies">third largest exporter of coal</a> and its existing customers are now under pressure to find alternative supplies. </p> <p>Russia’s aggression is not just resulting in a major humanitarian and political crisis. It is also causing pain at the bowser for Australian consumers due to the surge in oil pricing and may soon result in higher electricity bills. </p> <p>Australia’s east-coast electricity market is still heavily reliant upon coal. While many coal-fired power stations have existing supply contracts, the much higher global coal price may increase the cost of any extra coal purchases by existing power stations. </p> <p>Not only that, but our gas-fired power stations are facing potential increases in operating costs due to much higher global gas prices. </p> <p>Unfortunately, we may see the result in rising power bills. The price of future contracts for wholesale electricity next year in NSW are now twice what they were a year ago. Assuming this flows through to end-users, prices for residential customers could increase by as much as 10–15%. </p> <h2>So what should Australia do?</h2> <p>While it’s too late to dodge this bullet, we can prepare for future shocks by doubling down on firmed renewables. The faster we move, the less we’ll be hit by the price and reliability risks of coal. </p> <p>Already under pressure from cheaper renewable technologies, coal power station operators now find themselves potentially facing much higher costs in the short-term. There’s no relief for coal in the long term either, with the rapid rise of renewables and other zero-carbon technologies.</p> <p>Not only that, but most of our coal power stations are near the end of their lives, and industry doesn’t want to build new ones. That means coal will become more and more expensive, as the plants become <a href="https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/inputs-assumptions-methodologies/2020/aep-elical-assessment-of-ageing-coal-fired-generation-reliability.pdf">increasingly unreliable</a>. </p> <p>Wind and solar technologies are now much cheaper per unit of energy generated and can be integrated with energy storage to provide dispatchable “firmed” energy. The faster we transition to renewables firmed by storage, the better.</p> <p>If we do this, our new grid will also be more reliable. Continuing to rely upon coal is like relying upon a 1970s car to travel from Sydney to Melbourne on the hottest day of the year. </p> <p>State governments around the nation are already embracing this approach, with the New South Wales government moving ahead with plans for 12 gigawatts (GW) of new renewables and storage and the Victorian government announcing plans for 9GW of offshore windfarms. </p> <p>Governments must carefully design policies to avoid guaranteeing profits for private sector players while socialising any losses across taxpayers and energy consumers. In NSW, <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/blaajarec/v_3a66_3ay_3a2022_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a136-163.htm">alternatives</a> are being considered.</p> <p>As European and many other nations scramble to reduce their dependency on Russian coal, oil and gas, Australia now has a once in a generation opportunity to become a leading exporter of new clean energy. </p> <p>We have truly enormous clean energy resources in the form of free sunlight and wind. To export it, we can either run underseas cables to neighbouring countries, or convert cheap renewable power into <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-hydrogen-is-coming-and-these-australian-regions-are-well-placed-to-build-our-new-export-industry-174466">green hydrogen</a> and ship this to the world just as we currently do with LNG.</p> <h2>What else can we expect to see?</h2> <p>Surging fossil fuel prices has supercharged the existing disruption to an already rapidly changing domestic energy industry. In the past month, Origin announced it would abandon coal more rapidly, with the closure of its NSW coal-fired power station, Eraring, in 2025. </p> <p>Meanwhile, AGL has been pursuing a “demerger” with a view to splitting off its coal assets and pursuing new energy technologies. This comes as Australian tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes and Canadian asset fund Brookfield <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-06/brt-agl-brookfield-bid-rejected/100887042">offered to buy AGL</a> for $8.25 a share, though they were not successful. Their plan was to accelerate the closure of AGL’s coal assets, which would move AGL from the <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.au/news/new-government-data-reveals-agl-as-australias-biggest-climate-polluter/">highest carbon emitter in Australia</a> to a clean energy company. The age of coal power is ending, and much faster than most of us realise.</p> <p>This crisis should spur us to build a future-proofed fleet of “firmed” and well-distributed renewables with a known cost structure. </p> <p>By doing this, we will protect ourselves from the pain of geopolitically driven fossil fuel prices. And we will have a platform ready if we want to provide clean energy to the world in the form of green hydrogen.</p> <p>We have had decades to make full use of our wealth of renewable energy resources. We haven’t embraced this as fully as we should have. </p> <p>It turns out localised clean energy production is not just necessary to tackle climate change. It will prove a vital resource as we navigate the highly turbulent decade we have found ourselves in.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images </em></p> <p><em>This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-bills-are-spiking-after-the-russian-invasion-we-should-have-doubled-down-on-renewables-years-ago-179336" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. </em></p>

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Why divorce rates spike after summer

<p>Think twice before spending every moment of the holiday with your husband or wife. It just might tip a shaky marriage over the edge. </p> <p>While there's a lull in divorce filings during summer months, government figures show rates spike in March, once school and work resume for another year. </p> <p>Spending too much time together can be the nail in the coffin for some, a counsellor specialising in relationships says. </p> <p>"The divorce rate at that time of year is just a reflection on what is really going on because they're having to spend more time together," Bryce Diprose said.</p> <p>"If you're taking the two-weeks-off traditional holiday break, you're spending a couple of weeks with someone who maybe you don't really like."</p> <p>Filing for divorce is rarest during the summer. In 2015, the summer monthly average was 646 divorce filings, while the monthly average for the year was 718. </p> <p>But March of 2015 was the busiest divorce month. Filings peaked at 805 that month, according to figures obtained from the Ministry of Justice through the Official Information Act. </p> <p>Similarly, in 2016, while the monthly average was 700, March climbed 10 per cent to 777. </p> <p>The trend is apparent after Easter holidays, too: May is a busy month for divorces – 761 were filed for in May 2015 and even set the yearly record of 803 in May 2016.</p> <p>"When you're working, you can run off to work or spend that extra time at work because you don't want to go home to see your partner," Diprose said.</p> <p>Booze is another holiday problem. "We tend to drink a lot more around this time of year, so it exaggerates things in our minds.</p> <p>"Alcohol is a depressant. That is going to exaggerate all the negative stuff that's going on in a relationship.</p> <p>"When people are getting out and about, it's vitamin D, people feeling better about themselves." </p> <p>For couples experiencing holiday irritation, it's important to communicate, Diprose said. </p> <p>"Be mindful that you're spending more time together, so it is going to exaggerate what might not be good.  I think they've just got to talk and possibly do things on their own." </p> <p>Divorce lawyer Jeremy Sutton said he notices these trends year to year. While December is the quietest month for people seeking separation, it seems to peak after any holiday.</p> <p>"It's a reasonably common thing that people look into [divorce] in January and February but maybe not apply for divorce," Sutton said. "But if they've got a new partner, they'll be filing as soon as possible.</p> <p>"I tend to be very busy at the start of the year from January onwards. December is usually quite quiet as to when people are separating, because they're focusing on family things. </p> <p>"Some people will come in before Christmas and say, I want to separate. But they've got children, so they're going to wait for the New Year for the sake of the kids. They don't want to ruin the Christmas holidays. </p> <p>"And there's a lot of money spent on holidays and presents and other expenses ... In general, at Christmas, things are quite tight." </p> <p>New Year resolutions, having the time to reflect and visiting the in-laws are other factors that lead to post-holiday separation, Sutton said. </p> <p>"Most families or couples have three weeks or more for the holiday and that's the longest time they'll have without one party working.</p> <p>"It can mean that you're feeling tired and not that happy because you've had to travel to another part of the country to see your in-laws when really you'd rather not be doing that."</p> <p><em>Written by Ruby Nyika. Republished with permission of <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/" target="_blank"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Stuff.co.nz</span></strong></a>.</em></p>

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Brandy-spiked hot chocolate

<p>This hot chocolate is not the frothy liquid we are used to but the thick mixture of cream and melted chocolate served in European cafés and brasseries.</p> <p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Makes:</span></strong> 4 cups hot chocolate</p> <p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Ingredients:</span></strong></p> <ul> <li>1 ½ cups cream</li> <li>1 ½ cups finely chopped good quality dark chocolate</li> <li>2 tablespoons brandy</li> <li>Whipped cream for garnish</li> </ul> <p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Method:</span></strong></p> <ol start="1"> <li>Put the cream into a small saucepan and bring to the boil. Add the chocolate and brandy and stir until dissolved. The mixture should be thick and creamy.</li> <li>Pour into 4 small cups and top each with a spoonful of whipped cream.</li> </ol> <p><em>Written by Ray McVinnie. First appeared on <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/" target="_blank"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Stuff.co.nz</span></strong></a>. Image credit: Kieran Scott.</em></p> <p><em><strong>Have you ordered your copy of the Over60 cookbook, </strong></em><strong>The Way Mum Made It</strong><em><strong>, yet? Featuring 178 delicious tried-and-true recipes from you, the Over60 community, and your favourites that have appeared on the Over60 website, <a href="https://shop.abc.net.au/products/way-mum-made-it-pbk" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">head to the abcshop.com.au to order your copy now</span></a>.</strong></em></p>

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