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Global tourism industry may shrink by more than 50 per cent due to the pandemic

<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328515/original/file-20200416-192703-1x89lu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328515/original/file-20200416-192703-1x89lu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="" /></a> <span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/" class="license">CC BY-SA</a></span></p> <p>Due to the coronavirus, people around the world have canceled their travel plans. Governments and health officials have warned the public to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0409-modifications-extension-no-sail-ships.html">avoid boarding cruise ships</a> and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/faqs.html">long flights</a>. <a href="https://www.isitcanceledyet.com/">Major events</a> like conferences, trade shows and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/tokyo-2020-olympics-postponed-over-coronavirus-concerns-n1165046">the Olympics</a> have been canceled or postponed.</p> <p>As a result, many businesses in the travel and tourism industry are likely to find themselves in jeopardy.</p> <p>Predicting the economic impact of the coronavirus right now is akin to participating in a running competition without knowing how long the course is. However, a few things are already clear.</p> <p><strong>Our study</strong></p> <p><a href="https://m3center.org/our-team/">We conducted a study </a> during the third week of March with more than 2,000 travelers from 28 countries. Via Amazon Mechanical Turk, we asked respondents about their travel behaviors during the pandemic.</p> <p>Our study showed that 63.8% of the travelers will reduce their travel plans in the next 12 months. More than half canceled their business travel immediately due to the coronavirus.</p> <p>Results of our study predict that, compared to last year, the travel industry, which includes businesses such as airlines, hotels and restaurants, will shrink by 50% in 2020, which would mean a significant loss of jobs and revenue.</p> <p>The number of international travelers could shrink from <a href="https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284421152">1.4 billion</a> to fewer than 1 billion people. That would be the first time the international traveler number has fallen that low since 2015.</p> <p>We also asked respondents to rate their perceived image of China and Italy, two of the countries hardest hit by the pandemic. Interestingly, U.S. travelers’ image of China and Italy has deteriorated. The image of China was damaged most significantly, as some people blame China for the spread of the virus.</p> <p>However, we expect that this image may recover soon, as research shows that travelers have a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19368623.2011.647264">short memory about the negative aspects of a destination after a disaster</a>.</p> <p><strong>Sizing up the impact</strong></p> <p>The travel industry has faced many challenges in the past, including the 9/11 attacks and the Great Recession, but none are similar in magnitude to the coronavirus. For example, the travel industry <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230100060_7">shrank by 31.6% after 9/11</a>.</p> <p>In the U.S, the travel and tourism industry <a href="https://www.selectusa.gov/travel-tourism-and-hospitality-industry-united-states">generated US$1.6 trillion in 2017</a> in economic output.</p> <p>A study from Tourism Economics, a company that consults in the tourism sector, predicts that the U.S. tourism industry will lose <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/coronavirus-travel-industry-could-lose-24-billion-in-tourism-from-outside-us.html">at least $24 billion</a> in 2020, thanks to a widespread loss of spending at restaurants, hotels, theme parks and more.</p> <p>The World Travel and Tourism Council, which represents the global private sector of Travel &amp; Tourism, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-travel-coronavirus-covid19-jobs-pandemic-tourism-aviation/">predicts up to 50 million jobs</a> in the global travel industry could be lost.</p> <p>While the economic impact of the coronavirus is significant, its impact on people’s social interaction, too, will likely be felt for years to come.<em><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></em></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/faizan-ali-1032118">Faizan Ali</a>, Assistant Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-florida-1359">University of South Florida</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/cihan-cobanoglu-1033454">Cihan Cobanoglu</a>, McKibbon Endowed Chair Professor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-florida-1359">University of South Florida</a></em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-tourism-industry-may-shrink-by-more-than-50-due-to-the-pandemic-134306">original article</a>.</em></p>

International Travel

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6 things you never knew were shrinking

<p> </p> <p><strong>1. Chocolate bars</strong></p> <p>For better or worse, these things are getting smaller and smaller – and you probably haven’t even noticed.</p> <p>Trying to cut back on carbs and sugar? You’re in luck. Many popular chocolate and snack bars are doing the job for you by shrinking ever so slightly, a 2018 BBC study found. A Snickers bar, for instance, is now 28 per cent lighter than it was four years ago, while Twix bars have lost 20 per cent of their original weight. As chocolate bars become more expensive to make, many companies have opted to downsize instead of changing their recipes or charging customers more. They’re counting on the fact that most buyers won’t notice the difference.</p> <p><strong>2. Animals</strong></p> <p>Up until about 100,000 years ago, sloths could be as tall as giraffes and beavers weighed as much as front row forwards. But that changed when homosapiens entered the picture, according to a 2018 study published in the journal Science. Due to rising global temperatures and overhunting of large mammals, the average animal size fell by an estimated 50 to 75 per cent. Experts predict that animals will continue to shrink if humans don’t adjust their behaviour. Worse, many large animals like whales and polar bears could go extinct altogether.</p> <p><strong>3. Calculators</strong></p> <p>When Anita Mark VII, one of the world’s first commercially available calculators, was launched in 1961, it could barely fit on the average school desk. But don’t let its size fool you; it could only do basic arithmetic. This personal number cruncher had a $1000 price tag, to boot. Fortunately, both the size and cost of calculators have declined over time. Today, you can slip a basic calculator into your pocket or just use an app on your smartphone.</p> <p><strong>4. Islands</strong></p> <p>In 2016, Australian researchers made an alarming discovery: Five islands in the Pacific Ocean had completely disappeared. This was no magic trick, though; the real culprit was climate change. Melting glaciers have caused sea levels to rise, covering the islands – which ranged in size from 2.5-12.4 acres – in the process. While the missing islands were not inhabited by humans, shrinking coastlines on six other islands have forced entire villages to relocate, the researchers found.</p> <p><strong>5. Car engines </strong></p> <p>Car engines have come a long way in just a century. Back in 1932, the classic Ford V8 engine weighed a whopping 230 kilograms but delivered just 48 kilowatts of power. Ford’s new EcoBoost engine, by comparison, delivers over triple the amount of power as its predecessor and is only half the weight. Car manufacturing companies are now going greener, too; the new Ford engine reduced its carbon dioxide emissions by 7 per cent.</p> <p><strong>6. The Australian population</strong></p> <p>The Australian birth rate dropped to about 1.79 births per woman in 2016, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. That’s almost 16 per cent lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, which is the rate predicted to keep a population stable without immigration. Experts believe that the growing number of women waiting to have children – along with a decrease in teen pregnancies – are causing the decline.</p> <p><em>Written by Brooke Nelson. This article first appeared in </em><a href="http://www.readersdigest.com.au/true-stories-lifestyle/thought-provoking/13-things-you-never-knew-were-shrinking?items_per_page=All"><em>Reader’s Digest</em>.</a><em> For more of what you love from the world’s best-loved magazine, </em><a href="http://readersdigest.innovations.co.nz/c/readersdigestemailsubscribe?utm_source=over60&amp;utm_medium=articles&amp;utm_campaign=RDSUB&amp;keycode=WRN87V"><em>here’s our best subscription offer.</em></a></p> <p><img style="width: 100px !important; height: 100px !important;" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7820640/1.png" alt="" data-udi="umb://media/f30947086c8e47b89cb076eb5bb9b3e2" /></p>

Caring