Winston Peters' decision on a coalition with Jacinda Ardern as PM puts us in new territory
The price of power. Deputy Prime Minister, four ministers in Cabinet, one more outside Cabinet. And some big policy wins, including immigration.
It was a price Jacinda Ardern was prepared to pay, and one that Bill English judged as too high. Over the coming days and hours we will find out more about what finally tipped Winston Peters hand in Labour's favour. But for now we know enough. After days of hard ball negotiation, and talks that Peters dragged out till the 11th hour, Ardern just wanted it more than English.
So what can we expect from a Labour - NZ First Government? It won't be the Government many of its supporters thought they were voting for - the Greens are sidelined by Peters', who made it abundantly clear they won't be equal partners in a Labour-NZ First government.
But Labour's supporters will take it regardless. Nine long years in the political wilderness is more than enough. And Ardern has sweetened the pill by giving the Greens a proportionate number of ministerial portfolios - though outside, rather than inside, Cabinet.
So what was the tipping point? National was not prepared to go as hard or as far on curbing immigration as Labour - that much was made clear by English in a gracious concession speech.
And while it's likely National was prepared to offer Peters the same plum roles - foreign affairs and deputy prime minister - it may have found some of NZ First's more interventionist economic demands harder to stomach.
The deal with Labour is understood to put NZ First's hands on the economic tiller with a super-sized economic development portfolio, and responsibility for industries such as forest and fisheries, as well as transport and infrastructure. Economic development will likely go to former Labour minister Shane Jones, while NZ First deputy Ron Mark will likely pick up defence. NZ First education spokeswoman Tracey Martin will be the other Cabinet minster, while Fletcher Tabuteau is tipped for a ministerial portfolio outside Cabinet.
There were cheers and tears of joy in the Labour caucus rooms when Peters streamed his announcement live. The mood in National would have been grim. But the dragged out negotiations and constant delays suggests they were in it till the end. So why did National not go the extra mile?
Peters had tested the patience of National MPs - its demands sought influence disproportionate to NZ First's result of 7 per cent to National's 44 per cent. There was also wariness about history repeating after the disastrous 1996 coalition deal, which sparked National's defeat and nine years in Opposition. Some MPs had openly debated whether National should just sit this one out rather than cosy up to NZ First again.
A decision to go with a four-term National government would have weighed just as heavily on Peters; the mood for change would likely have swept them both out. Peters is banking on NZ First being part of a generational change in New Zealand politics and sharing in some of Ardern's inevitable honeymoon.
But that is not a given; if there is a honeymoon, it will be for the next generation of political leaders and the change of direction a Labour government and younger leader promises.
Ardern will need every bit of that honeymoon to manage a Government that is a first under MMP - nearly one in two voters wanted National, which will enter Opposition with more resources and more MPs than its Labour opponent.
It won't just be in the House where Ardern's mettle will be tested - she will need to lead an inclusive enough Government to manage the large number of National - and Green - voters who may feel robbed by Thursday's outcome.
Written by Tracy Watkins. Republished with permission of Stuff.co.nz.